Friday, April 06, 2007

Government Unfunded Pensions

Coyote Blog harps on one of my favorite issues that no one else seems to notice; unfunded pension liabilities by governments. Private company owners go to jail for shenanigans that the government routinely gets away with. The New York Times uncovered the latest fraud by a government in New Jersey. These cases are the rule, not the exception, for the public sector and nothing will be done about it until it's a full blown crisis.

I have written more on unfunded/underfunded pensions here, here, here and here.

Thursday, April 05, 2007

Baseball Season

Well baseball season has begun pretty well for the Indians. Great game yesterday afternoon even though Larry Vanover's strike zone was about the size of a quarter. I'm sure the fans braving the snow and 30 degree weather really enjoyed that. I hope today's game featuring Dice-K vs. Greinke is umped a little better because I'll be there. It's going to be all of 40 degrees at game time but this is a premiere matchup that I wouldn't miss for anything.

Some thoughts and predictions at this early stage in the season. The White Sox have shown this week that they are in danger of being in more of a battle for last place than they will be in for first place. But, I don't think the Royals have the pitching to make that battle very interesting. The Tigers are going to learn how difficult it is to repeat but still may get the Wild Card in a battle between the A's, Angels and Blue Jays.

The Nationals are hands down the worst team in the league this year, it's not even really a battle. I think the Red Sox are a Schilling injury away from being irrelevant this year. The Mariners will be the least interesting and worst team in the league, not a great combination.

Are the defending champions going to come in last in the NL Central this year? I wouldn't rule it out; they're old, don't hit well, don't have a good rotation and looked to not be major league ready against the Mets. The NL Central will be as even as any division has been. I don't think any team will win less than 70 games or win more than 90 games. The team that plays the best in the division will win it. I think it will be the Brewers, Sheets was very impressive on opening day and the addition of Suppan gives them the best 1-2-3 of any team in the division although Harang, Arroyo and Bailey may be the best by year's end. I think the Pirates have a legitimate shot at beating the Cardinals this year, alas in the battle for 5th place, but Bucs fans have to enjoy the little victories.

The Phillies are the class of the National League, meaning they would win about 80 games in the AL. The Mets aren't far behind but Milledge has got to be traded for a front line starter, maybe Buerhle or Garland when the White Sox throw in the towel, because they're not going far with Oliver Perez taking the ball on a regular basis. An August rotation of Glavine, Martinez, Pelfrey, Buerhle or Garland, El Duque or Maine could give them a good chance at 100 wins. The first team to 100 wins, I think it will be the Phils.

The NL West is a mess with only San Francisco out of the hunt. I don't think Colorado or Arizona are quite ready for prime time but they will be exciting at times. San Diego and LA will battle in a blah-fest, the winner of the division will have about 88 wins.

As I wrote earlier, the A's and Angels will be competitive in the West, whoever doesn't win it will be in the Wild Card chase. I give the edge to the Angels unless the Sarge Jr. and F-Rod controversies bring them down. Hopefully, Chone Figgins will get back on the field quickly and the Angels find a way to get Brandon Wood and Erick Aybar and Kendry Morales to the major leagues, whether with the Angels or not. If those guys are playing somewhere the Angels will be better.

The AL East, wow, could it be less stellar. 25% of major league payrolls reside in this division and the most interesting team, the Devil Rays, has a low payroll. But they have the best positional talent in the division. Unfortunately, they're going to be in a lot of 9 - 8 games because they don't have any pitching. The Yankees will buy their way into a good pitching staff and they have a great lineup. I think they take this division with 95 wins and no opposition in site. The Blue Jays will come up with about 88 wins and challenge for the Wild Card. The Red Sox will be done by August when Schilling goes down and decides to become a full-time blogger. Beckett's blisters will reappear, Dice-K will be an interesting 15 game winner, Manny will be Manny and Ortiz will mash. They'll probably be pretty fun to watch, but have mid-level talent in the bullpen, Varitek is on the decline and JD Drew will suck all the fun of the '04 team out of the clubhouse. Big disappointing season on the way.

The Indians are going to win 100 and show that the Central isn't as even as believed in spring training. The Twins are going to miss Liriano and Matt Garza will have the growing pains that Santana and Liriano didn't. The Twins just don't have the pitching to compete in this division. The Tigers are going to be good, just not as good as they were in the first half of last year. The Royals are going to steal some of the White Sox's wins from last year putting them on par with the White Sox in the division.

Playoffs: Indians, Yankees, Angels, Tigers (wild card), Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers, Mets(wild card)
World Series: Indians, Mets
Champion: Indians

The day after Hell will freeze over.